Lessons and examples that help readers understand probability, risk, tradeoffs, uncertainty, and better decision-making with money.
A famous experiment found people demand nearly twice as much to sell a mug as others would pay for the identical one. The endowment effect explained, with a used-couch pricing example.
Most people believe they’re less likely than average to face a costly setback, which is statistically impossible for most of them. Optimism bias explained, with a renters-insurance example.
A vivid, specific story is more persuasive than a boring statistic — even when the statistic is the more reliable guide. Base rate neglect explained, with money examples.
Why delaying retirement contributions or paying only the credit card minimum feels reasonable in the moment. Present bias explained, and why automating the future works better than willpower.
Almost every home project, move, or renovation runs over budget and over schedule. The planning fallacy explained, with a worked kitchen-remodel example and a real fix.
How easily an example comes to mind isn’t the same as how likely it actually is. Where the availability heuristic distorts insurance, investing, and everyday risk decisions.
The quality of a money decision depends on how many other decisions you’ve already made that day. What decision fatigue is and four ways to protect your biggest financial choices from it.
Following the crowd is usually a reasonable shortcut — except with money, where the “crowd” you actually see is often a skewed, self-selected sample. Three questions before you follow it.
Once you want something to be true, it’s easy to find evidence that agrees and easy to miss evidence that doesn’t. How confirmation bias shows up in scams, investing, and big purchases.
The first number you see — a sticker price, a “was” price, a suggested donation — quietly shapes what feels reasonable afterward. How anchoring works and how to protect yourself from it.